Paper Title: Communicating Republicans’ Level of Support for Climate Policy Briefly Increases Personal Support in the United States

Author(s) and Year: Benjamin Lyons and Ariel Hasell, 2024

Journal: Science Communication (SAGE Journals) (closed access)

TL;DR: A strong majority of Americans support climate policy, but these issues are often portrayed as divided along political party lines and are seen as politically difficult to implement as a result. This paper found that showing Republicans the amount of policy support from fellow Republicans (over 50%) increased their individual support for climate policies. 

Why I chose this paper: Climate change will be the defining problem of the next several generations. In the United States, however, this subject has been reduced to yet another polarized political issue and has subsequently taken a backseat to other, more immediate, concerns (and political gridlock). Already concerning due to the urgent need to combat climate change, this impasse is extra frustrating because most folks agree that climate change is an issue and the government should implement climate policy to reduce negative effects now and in the future (see Figure 1). One of my primary interests is in making progress on this issue, and I would like to understand ways to close the gap between the widely held public sentiment and the inability to implement effective policy.

The Background

Climate Policy is More Popular than You Think

Despite the overwhelming desire to protect our planet for future generations, Americans grossly underestimate the support for climate policy from their fellow citizens, typically figuring that only ~40% of Americans feel this way. This representation is inconsistent with the views of the American public: in reality, roughly 3 in 4 would like to combat global warming and think that the government should implement policies to this effect. (This perception gap actually extends around the world, as explained in this illuminating article.) Climate change will require collective action at local, regional, national, and global levels. This poses a major challenge, however, as efforts to mitigate the ongoing catastrophe necessitates buy-in from large swathes of society and trust that efforts will be reciprocated by others. 

Individuals are highly motivated by their social groups and will often moderate their opinions to align with group norms. In the United States, conservatives – and the Republican Party writ large – are generally more opposed to climate-friendly policies. However, Americans of all political persuasions overestimate this opposition; the majority of Republicans actually support many of these policies (Figure 1). The authors of this piece wanted to know if this misconception could be corrected if they educated individuals about the high level of support for climate-friendly policies. By updating the understood group norm, the research also examined if these individuals would then be more likely to support legislation to this effect.

Figure 1: A majority of individuals in both political parties support climate-friendly policies, such as this map showing that 91% of Democrats and 74% of Republicans support tax rebates for the purchase of energy-efficient vehicles or solar panels. Image from the Partison Climate Opinion Maps from the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication.

The Methods

The Reminder

The researchers recruited a representative sample of ~1600 US adults, with roughly equal numbers of self-identified Democrats and Republicans (21% reported as independents). Each individual was then shown an infographic that summarized the level of support for climate and energy policies among one political group: Democrats, Republicans or Americans (The data was obtained from Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and Pew Research Center). For example, the “Republican” text informed subjects that 57% of Republicans supported “regulating carbon dioxide as a pollutant” while 65% wanted to “develop alternative energy sources over fossil fuels.” (Democratic backing for these policies hovered around 90%, with overall American approval in the 75-80% range.)

Afterwards, the survey participants were asked about their updated perception of climate support from the group they were shown (a second-order perception). They were also asked about their own support and priority for these policies (first-order preference). Priority for climate change policy was measured relative to other topics by asking the participants to rank their desire for climate policy among a list of six national issues (such as the economy and healthcare). Finally, participants were asked these same questions a week later to determine if their updated perceptions stuck.

The Results

Republicans Follow Republicans (for a bit)

As shown in previous studies, Americans of all persuasions consistently underestimated their fellow compatriot’s support for climate policy by as much as 50%. This was especially true of the support from Republicans and from all Americans (in general, Democrats are – correctly – assumed to have high levels of support). After looking at the infographic, respondents were able to correct their second-order perception of the treatment group and more accurately estimate that group’s support for climate policy. More importantly, Republicans who were exposed to the Republican norm were more likely to respond positively for climate policy, expressing an increase in their personal support (first-order preference) of 5% on average. Democratic respondents, meanwhile, reported the biggest increase in policy support after exposure to the American norm.

However, even after respondents were shown the positive support for these policies, it did not change the relative priority they placed on climate issues. Additionally, when the participants were surveyed again a week later (after the graphic was initially shown), most of the effects had largely disappeared, although Republicans seemed to maintain some correction to their second-order perception of their fellow party members.

The Impact 

One Correction, Many More Needed

Republican support for environmental policy is woefully underestimated among Americans of all stripes. This is especially true, ironically, among Republicans (others have found that those who consume Fox News and other conservative outlets have the largest misconception). Exposing folks to actual support metrics generally corrects this misunderstanding and offers a small step towards moving policy forward: as conservatives update their understanding of their own group norms, they are more likely to feel comfortable vocalizing individual support. (Meanwhile, because Democratic support is already assumed to be high, no novel information has been conveyed that would change support.) Additionally, correcting misconceptions could increase individual support if folks now understood actions as more politically feasible because they have learned that climate policy is popular. 

While Republicans professed more political support for climate issues after treatment, it did not change their political priorities. In some part, this hints at the need for further study, as the authors only measured relative priority of climate policy instead of objective priority.  Republicans may still be focused on other issues such as the economy and immigration overall, but the importance placed on climate policy in their overall political behavior might change. More troublingly, when the research followed up with participants one week later, most of the immediate support turned out to be temporary. It must be noted, however, that this study did not occur in a vacuum, and that it will likely take more than a single data point of support to counteract messaging and cues that suggest otherwise. This suggests that more sustained efforts to educate Americans about their  fellow citizens’ support for climate change will not be solely responsible for solving the climate crisis, but could offer a step in the right direction.  

Written by Clark Hickman

Edited by Elena Reiriz Martínez and Sarah Ferguson

Featured image credit: Markus Spiske